Number of visits: date: 2022-09-13
Recently, point topic, a UK based analysis institution, released a new report predicting that by the end of 2030, the number of fixed broadband users in the world will reach 1.6 billion, an increase of 26% over the 1.27 billion in the fourth quarter of 2021. From the number of users recorded in the fourth quarter of 2021, about 88% of fixed broadband users will be included in the top 30 broadband markets.
Changes in global broadband market share of different technologies
This forecast indicates that by the end of 2030, 75% of fixed broadband users in the world will use some kind of optical fiber (FTTH / P / b), compared with 62% in the fourth quarter of 2021. In the same period, the subscription share based on digital subscriber line (DSL) network / asymmetric digital subscriber line (ADSL) will drop from 10% to 4%, and the share of cable TV will drop from 17.5% to 10%, while the share of connection based on fiber to roadside (FTTC) and even / ultra high speed digital subscriber line (VDSL) and other technologies will remain basically stable, slightly higher than 8% and 2% respectively.
The actual broadband user data of the world counted by point topic shows that the traditional copper network customers have been losing over the years and have been replaced by more advanced technologies. From now to 2030, direct optical fiber network (NFN) will continue to attract most new customers. It is expected that in most technologically advanced markets, the number of digital subscriber line (DSL) network users will drop to hundreds or tens of thousands.
Top 10 markets for fiber broadband users in 2030
By 2030, China will still be the largest optical fiber broadband market, with an estimated number of 523 million users. Point topic pointed out that India would rank second and the United States would rank third. Japan, Britain and France are also in the top 10, mainly developing markets.
The report predicts that the optical fiber broadband users in India and Indonesia will achieve rapid growth at the end of this decade, and this transformation will also make India and Indonesia two of the five largest markets with the largest number of users in 2030. In terms of cable TV, the United States will continue to lead, but from the end of 2025, the number of users in the United States will begin to decline sharply.
It is predicted that the growth trajectory of optical fiber users in India will really begin to climb in 2025. According to the statistics of point topic, by the end of 2028, the number of optical fiber users in India will equal or slightly exceed that of the United States, occupying the second place in the world. Indonesia's acceleration will start in 2026 and is expected to overtake Brazil and Japan to become the fourth largest country in the world by 2029. Throughout the forecast period, the number of optical fiber users in China will remain the first in the world.
Point topic predicts that by 2030, China will have 523 million fiber broadband users, while India will have 110 million. The United States is expected to reach about 80 million in the same period, followed by Indonesia, which is close to 60 million. Brazil is expected to overtake Japan by a narrow margin to take the fifth place, but both countries will have about 40 million users.
The top ten markets in terms of penetration rate of fiber broadband households in 2030
Ambitious fiber promotion projects, Spain and the United Kingdom are expected to reach the countries with the highest fiber penetration rate in households by 2030. The fast-growing markets of Vietnam, Chile and Indonesia, as well as China, Japan, Sweden, France and South Korea, have established good optical fiber markets, and are also among the top ten in the optical fiber penetration prediction market.
According to the report, by 2025, the optical fiber footprint of telecom companies may cover 68 million American households. However, from the perspective of fiber deployment penetration, Spain and the United Kingdom are expected to dominate, and the fiber penetration rate of these two countries will reach 100% or higher by 2030. The penetration rates of Vietnam, Chile, China and Japan are all around 90%.
According to the analysis of point topic, "in terms of household penetration rate, optical fiber will be used by more than half of households in the world, and the overall penetration rate of fixed broadband will reach 70%."
Application market analysis of segmented technology types
From the perspective of segmentation technology, by the fourth quarter of 2030, optical fiber is expected to be used by 52.3% of households in the world; Cable is the second most common, accounting for 7%; 5.8% of households use optical fiber to roadside (FTTC) and very / ultra high speed digital subscriber line (VDSL); 3.0% of households use digital subscriber line (DSL) network / asymmetric digital subscriber line (ADSL); In addition, it is expected that about 1.5% of households will use other technologies.
The report predicts that the global fiber broadband utilization rate is rising, and China will have 523 million users by 2030
(data source: point topic, wechat · optical communication mapping)
Although the growth of direct optical fiber will dominate this decade, FTTC / VDSL and cable platforms favored by some operators can not be ignored, especially their more advanced versions, such as DOCSIS 3.1. Point topic pointed out that these technologies are very popular in some markets, although the number of users using these technologies will be at the expense of the use of direct optical fiber.
Experts suggest that the areas where cable TV broadband is most difficult to popularize are concentrated in the suburbs. At present, the United States is far ahead, with the largest number of cable broadband users, with about 80 million users; China ranks second with about 30 million users. However, the number of users in this area in both countries is expected to drop sharply from 2025. Point topic predicts that by the fourth quarter of 2030, the number of users using cable TV technology in the United States will exceed 40 million, while China will have about 16 million.
This prediction of the US cable TV market by point topic is in line with the comments made by Moffett Nathanson, a well-known investment bank, in June 2021, which believed that the impact of optical fiber on cable TV operators would peak in 2024 or 2025. However, this is in sharp contrast to the forecast released by New Street Research in July 2021. The company predicts that the total number of subscribers of U.S. cable operators will increase from 73.3 million in 2020 to 85.9 million by 2030. However, New Street Research's forecast covers the total number of residential subscribers that cable operators will have, not just those using DOCSIS connections.
Source: OFweek optical communication network
